Looking into Australia Together - Part 3

Strategies for stopping climate change.

In this series of articles I’m providing brief summaries featuring some of the Targets and Strategies in Australia Together.

Australia Together is the nation’s first long term, integrated plan for a better future for everyone. It is being progressively developed by Australians for Australians so that we can tell our governments what we want them to do for us as a cohesive, democratic community.

The purpose of the plan is to help Australians make the Vision for Australia Together a reality. This Vision describes in one page the sort of nation and country Australians aspire to live in by 2050 or sooner. It is a draft based on the responses of Australians about the best future they can imagine whenever they have been asked about that in surveys, community forums and other research programs in the 21st century. You can read the latest draft of the Vision for Australia Together here.

Preventing planetary heating is key to making the Vision a reality. Targets and Strategies designed to achieve this have been prominent in Australia Together since its first drafts were released, beginning in May 2021. In February 2024 ACFP released Issue No. 7 of Australia Together in which Strategies for climate change were necessarily revised and updated due to the failure of the world and Australia to take action to reduce carbon emissions sufficiently to prevent planetary heating rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial revolution temperatures.

Today I’ll summarise some of the new and updated Targets and Strategies in Australia Together for stopping climate change. ACFP will be reporting on the performance of the current federal parliament and government in relation to these Targets and Strategies in its next major report, The State of Australia 2025, due to be published before the next federal election.

At present ACFP doesn’t have strong expectations of being able to report that there has been sufficient progress towards stopping climate change during the current parliament and government’s term of office. A lot will need to change about what the current government is doing in these policy areas. For instance, given that there is very little time left – less than a decade – to stop more planetary heating the Labor government would need to stop all further approvals and even revoke recent approvals of new coal mines if it wishes to get a positive report about its performance on climate change before the next election. It’s doing some good things but it’s undoing these by other decisions which will result in net negative progress in relation to planetary heating.    

Nevertheless with the release of The State of Australia 2025 Australians will at least be able to use facts about progress with climate change to help them make their own decisions on how they wish to vote in the election of the next parliament and government.

The approach to planning for climate change in Issue No. 7 of Australia Together

The revisions in Issue No. 7 of Australia Together have been drafted recognising that in 2023 the mean annual temperature on the Australian continent had already reached 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1961–1990 average. It may fall back again temporarily but the trend of temperature increases is of now extreme concern. This has led ACFP to assume that the most responsible approach to long term planning is to assume that global heating will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius on a continuous basis some time in the next 5 years but that it is still just possible to keep global temperature increases close to 1.5 degrees and below 2 degrees Celsius.

Based on this the plan asserts that governments should not be given permission to exempt themselves from Australia’s legal commitments under the Paris Agreement to keep temperature rises as close as possible to 1.5 degrees. Nor should they be given permission to do anything to set Australia on a path to 2 degrees Celsius of heating or more, when it can still be avoided. They should not be given that permission because we and they know it will destroy our livelihoods and everything we hold dear about life on this planet. We have no more than five to ten years to stop whatever heating we can still stop. At the moment no country, including Australia, is doing anywhere near enough, quickly enough.

Strategies in Issue No. 7 of Australia Together are therefore all designed to maximise the chances of keeping planetary heating as low as possible. In effect the Target is to stop it in its tracks – to stop it getting any worse than we are already locked in for.

To achieve this, ongoing revision of and additions to several different types of Strategies in Australia Together will be essential, partly because the climate-related Strategies are not sufficient on their own to stop the heating and partly because it is expected that governments will delay conformance with these or similar Strategies for as long as they assume that their maintenance of office is dependent on their continued support of the interests of donors from the fossil fuel industry.

As I noted in Parts 1 and 2 of this series, Australia Together is a map through time of the safe routes to a destination of wellbeing and security for every single Australian by 2050 or sooner. Every Target and Strategy has a coloured map reference number. You can follow the map by using the reference numbers or simply by searching on keywords which relate to your topic of interest. If you search on the word “climate” you’ll realise that the timeframes for the Strategies in that area are now really short.

I’ll turn now to a bit more detail on Strategies in Australia Together for stopping climate change.

Strategies in Australia Together for stopping climate change

Targets and Strategies designed to help Australians stop climate change appear in Australia Together under a range of map reference numbers in the Society, Environment, Economy and Governance chapters.

These Targets and Strategies are closely linked to and integral to the success of several others. They are critical the nation’s ability to meet virtually all Targets and Strategies for the national economy, housing, and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

The general objective of the Targets and Strategies is simply to stop the heating so that we can actually reap the huge social, environmental and economic benefits of a post-carbon world before it becomes impossible. But one of the most important Strategies is located under map reference Env01.01. This is a Strategy about the need for Australia to take a leadership role in international negotiations. Unless we take that role, any work we do in Australia to reduce carbon emissions will be undone by global inaction on the same.  

Env01.01 is a Strategy for reformation of Australia’s negotiating stance and conduct in Paris Agreement negotiations so that Australia commits to emitting no more than its fair share of the remaining safe global carbon budget. This means Australia should emit no more than its fair share of the total tonnage of greenhouse gases that can still be emitted to the atmosphere before temperatures increase by more than 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius.

For our planning purposes, ACFP has currently estimated the remaining global amount of the budget to be about 235 billion tonnes. It's assumed in the plan that if the world emits any more than that it will lock in runaway, irreversible global heating. The estimate has been chosen based on a mix of scientific estimates of carbon budgets and estimates of the physical and political feasibility of achieving those budgets. In 2024 it’s still achievable to do all this. But the window is closing.

Australia’s fair share of that remaining global budget of carbon is likely to be around 3.5 billion tonnes in total. This equates to about 1.5% of the remaining 235 billion tonnes. In other words, at home, we can emit no more than that ever if we expect to contain temperatures. Australia Together provides links to the research underpinning these calculations and estimates. Those links can be found under the map reference number Env02.01.

In Australia Together it’s assumed that tonnage emissions of any more than 3.5 billion tonnes by Australia in its domestic activities would be completely pointless for Australians because it would defeat the temperature objective and therefore all other vital objectives, especially for our economy. There is no economic, environmental or social advantage to Australia in emitting more than this budget. Nor will there be any advantage to Australia if the rest of the world’s countries do not likewise commit to emitting no more than their fair shares of the remaining safe carbon budget. Australia must take a stand on this on the international stage or suffer the consequences in lost wellbeing, security and prosperity. This is why the Strategy proposed under Env01.01 is pivotal.

However, it will also be necessary for Australia to commit to ceasing exports of fossil fuels and to do everything we can to drive other nations to cease fossil fuel use totally before the safe global carbon budget is exhausted. Some strategies for this are already included in Australia Together but more will be necessary.

Other strategies that will ensure Australia can maximise its chances of meeting the temperature objective include:

• emission reduction strategies;

• economic strategies towards zero emissions;

• governance strategies to help reach zero emissions; and

• risk reduction strategies to protect Australians from the now unavoidable impacts of climate change.

These are really ambitious Targets and Strategies but they are now the absolute minimum necessary to stop more heating. Because they’re so important, I’ll summarise them all in order starting with:

a) Emission reduction strategies:

1. Adoption of an annual carbon emissions reduction interim target of 85% reduction by 2030 compared to annual emissions in 2019 (Env02.01.01) and achievement of net zero emissions by 2033 within the carbon budget (Env02.01.02).

2. Elimination of fossil fuel subsidies by 2025 (Env02.02).

3. Legislation in 2024 to mandate cessation of new coal, gas and oil investments (Env02.03).

4. Legislation in 2024 to phase out existing investments in coal by 2030, limit gas generation to the level necessary for grid security, and prohibit sales of new internal combustion engine cars and heavy vehicles by 2026 (Env02.04).

5. Establishment of a fund to provide a safety net and facilitate re-deployment of employees of thermal coal mining and coal-fired power companies who are facing displacement (Env02.05.01).

6. Legislation tightening accountability for reporting on progress towards adopted targets for emissions reduction and responsible adjustment of targets consistent with the need to protect Australia from the risk of ecocide and genocide (Env02.05).

7. Legislation by 2025 to make ministers and board members of corporations personally and fully liable and subject to imprisonment for any actions in policy, administrative or executive decisions and commercial development after 2024 which can be linked to global temperature rises above 1.5 degrees Celsius and which have been taken without demonstrating legitimate offsets sufficient to negate the risk (Env02.05.01). This will be particularly applicable to financiers.

8. Establishment of a National Climate Change Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation Commission (Env03.01) or similar.

9. Establishment of a fully government-owned Commonwealth corporate entity, the Australian Renewable Electricity Investment & Security Corporation, or similar, to rebuild and modernise the electricity grid and prevent loss of financial returns to Australians from investment in the grid. (Env06.02).

10. Re-introduction of a Renewable Energy Target (RET) setting it this time at a minimum of 100% by 2030 (Env06.03).

11. Legislation to increase GDP and returns to rural landholders and mitigate climate change by increasing native forestry cover and restoring degraded ecosystems (Env11.01).

b) Economic strategies towards zero emissions:

1. Transformation of the composition of the Australian economy from fossil fuels to renewable energy (Econ01.06) supported by the establishment of a National Economic Transitions Commission (Econ02.05) or similar.

2. Establishment of a publicly owned Carbon in the Land and Sea Finance Corporation (Econ01.07).

3. Reintroduction of a price on carbon by 2025 (Econ01.08).

4. Provision of sufficient funding to the Australian Clean Energy Regulator to ensure its credibility as an ethical regulator of carbon credit markets and that Australia is a producer of genuine carbon credits (Econ05.02 and Econ05.03).

5. Strategic planning for population growth so that Australia’s population stabilises at 35 million by 2050 and capping immigration to suit that objective, recognising the environmental benefits (Econ01.03.02 and Econ01.03.03).

c) Governance strategies to help reach zero emissions:

1. Legislation to establish a legal obligation for parliamentarians and members of the executive to swear a Statement of Commitment to the Rights of Future Generations of Australians (Gov03.01.03).

2. Legislation prohibiting failure to publicly disclose the findings of any risk assessments and inquiries identifying security and safety threats to Australia and its people (Gov05.02.03).

3. Prohibition of government contracts to private sector companies that do not have certified plans to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2033 (Gov09.04 and Econ05.03).

4. Substantial increases to funding for humanitarian aid and global adaptation in response to climate change and development of strategic plans for climate mitigation and adaptation programs to be funded in developing countries (Gov11.04, Gov13.01 and Gov13.02).

5. Requirements for the Australian government to propose establishment of an Earth System Treaty in international law (Gov11.05 and Gov11.05.01). That particular strategy is probably as central to stopping climate change as the strategy for adopting a global carbon budget. You can read more about it under the map reference number Gov11.05.

d) Risk reduction strategies to protect Australians from climate change:

1. Development of a comprehensive strategy to build sovereign capability in areas of economic activity and human capital to protect Australia from global crises (Soc16.01).

2. Legislation making it obligatory for federal, state and local governments to prepare annual Statements of Adherence to and Performance on the National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework (Soc16.02 and Soc16.02.01).

Obviously there are a lot of Targets and Strategies in Australia Together aimed at stopping climate change and they need to be given immediate effect. This reflects the multi-faceted and urgent nature of the challenge. There is no point in saying we can’t meet these Targets or that it is too late or that we should permit governments to continue to ignore what needs to be done and done now. Delay will only exacerbate our economic problems. It will cost more than it saves. Nor is there any point in selecting a few of the Strategies to the exclusion of others. Success depends on the simultaneous implementation of all of them, and more, as an integrated package of reforms.

Among other things, to master the climate challenge we need to urgently regear our democracy so that everyday Australians have enough power an influence to counteract the influence of the fossil fuel lobby and conservative news media. Strategies aimed towards giving Australians human rights and a say in their future in a new People’s Constitution are central to this necessary and urgent re-balancing of power in democracy. Australians will not stop climate change and the resultant loss of their wellbeing and security if they have no power to insist that planetary heating be stopped and if governments can continue to lawfully disregard their human rights. You can find out more about this in Part 2 of this series, published last week.

It should be noted that additions and revisions will be necessary in this suite of Strategies to stop climate change. In this regard the newly established civil society entity, the Superpower Institute, has recently begun providing roadmaps to governments and other assistance to industry on how to secure the economic benefits of the post-carbon world. Issue No. 8 of Australia Together is likely to integrate some of the strategies being suggested by the Superpower Institute with those already included in Issue No. 7. All are necessary to overcome the existential problem of climate change.

Finally, it should be noted that the current Labor government is implementing some strategies that are similar to and consistent with the Strategies for climate change in Australia Together. Proposals for a Future Made in Australia Act and a Net Zero Economy Authority are good examples. On the face of it these are likely to arc towards the Vision for Australia Together at least in relation to transition away from a fossil fuel economy during climate change. But in relation to dealing with growth of inequality in Australia during climate change, much will depend on how these investments are chosen and contractually regulated. If all Australians are to be able to share in the benefits of transition to a post-carbon economy and if they are to be able to do what is most necessary to achieve that – namely, stop the heating – the steps being taken by the current government will not be enough. ACFP will continue to monitor progress on this and provide evidence based reports. 

The Strategies in Australia Together for stopping climate change are the product of research by a range of experts. ACFP is particularly indebted to the Department of Climate Change, Energy & Water (DCCEEW), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Climate Council, the Breakthrough Centre for Climate Restoration, the Australia Institute, the Lowy Institute, the International Energy Agency, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), the United Nations, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Stockholm Resilience Centre, the late Professor Will Steffen, Professor Ross Garnaut, Dr Jane O’Sullivan, Professor Ian Lowe, David Spratt, the National Centre for Climate Restoration, the World Resources Institute, the CSIRO, Sustainable Population Australia, the University of Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, Julian Cribb, and the Council for the Human Future.

Reading about climate change in Australia Together

Targets and Strategies for dealing with climate change and the rationale for all of them can be read in full in Australia Together. They are primarily located in:

• Chapter 6: Environment 1 - Environmental advocacy, Environment 2 - Climate change prevention, Environment 3 , Climate change adaptation, Environment 6 - Energy, and Environment 11 - Vegetation;

• Chapter 7: Economy 1 - Economic planning, growth & transition, Economy 2 - Employment planning, industrial reform & economic transition, and Economy 5 - Market regulation & competition policy;

• Chapter 8: Governance 3 - Human & other rights, Governance 5 - Transparency, openness & accountability, Governance 9 - Corporate & NGO responsibility, Governance 11 - International participation & global justice, and Governance 13 - Humanitarian effort; and

• Chapter 5: Society 16 - Emergency services.

But Targets and Strategies for climate change do not work in isolation from the wider agenda we can craft by working together to build a long term, integrated plan for the Australian nation and country. They are linked to, and integral to, the success of dozens of other strategies, especially in regard to poverty, the housing crisis, physical and mental ill-health, protection of biodiversity, and economic sustainability.

You can see how these linkages work to keep us on the safe paths and away from the unsafe ones simply by reading across the three-column structure used for every Target and Strategy in the plan. This will allow you to form a picture of where we are starting from and what we are aspiring to and it will also show how pursuit of the Target or Strategy will help the nation become what we want it to be, rather than what we don’t want it to be.

National Integrated Planning & Reporting - inclusive, community-driven national planning

Australia Together is generated using a process developed by ACFP called National Integrated Planning & Reporting or National IP&R. This process allows any and all Australians to select Targets and Strategies that are safe and discard ones that are unsafe or which will have the effect of disabling other safe Strategies. The plan contains 57 generic safe Direction statements for our society, environment, economy and governance. These function as a signpost system for arriving at our preferred future without excluding anyone, without tripping each other up and without slowing our progress.

Find out how to suggest inclusion of a Strategy in Australia Together here.

National IP&R gives everyday Australians a guidance system for generating safe Targets and Strategies. If you would like to suggest a Target or Strategy, you can assess whether your idea is likely to follow the safe routes towards the Vision for Australia Together. ACFP hopes that Australians will become more and more involved in using National IP&R as the decade passes. Perhaps by 2030 it will be the standard practice of an inclusive Australian nation charting its own course to the best future we can imagine.

You can read the latest draft of the Vision for Australia Together at all times on the ACFP website. If this describes the life and country you want by 2050 or sooner, then you can help make this Vision a reality by becoming involved in building Australia Together.

Feedback on the Vision for Australia Together and suggestions about the Targets and Strategies in the plan is always welcome by email at info@austcfp.com.au. Complete surveys to give us your opinion on the Vision for Australia Together here.

Next week on the State of Australia on Substack

Next week in the State of Australia on Substack I’ll post about: Strategies for peace, security and independent defence of Australia. In the meantime, the Australia Together Podcast this week will feature a conversation expanding on the climate crisis and strategies to fix it.  A link will be circulated in a couple of days.

Find out all about ACFP

Become involved in building plans for a better Australia here.